Consequences of drought in southeastern Europe will not only affect the production of food and its price. According to experts and relevant
analysts, the Balkans would be late this year and early next year and could face serious shortages of electricity, and, according to some, even in the dark.
Lack of power could be largely reflected in the price of energy throughout the Balkans, which would, in the end, could not pay people.
During July and August delivery on the stock market price of electricity by 20 percent sko?ilesu. So now Megawathour electricity costs in the Balkans from 55 to as much as 75 euros, and the price of daily consumption as much as 85 euros for Megawathour.
As has already been confirmed in the “Electric Power Industry of Bosnia and Herzegovina” (EPBIH), due to prolonged drought and periods of unfavorable hydrological conditions, which has been going on for months, but now it can be estimated that the total production of hydropower JP “Elektroprivreda BH” in 2012. year will be lower than planned by about 25 percent.
However, earlier it was announced that in the first six months of the 2012th hydropower production would be reduced by 42 percent! On the other hand, the total thermal power plants will be increased by about five percent.
Kota “Jablanica” in late August was lower than planned by about one meter. But in EPBIH claim to be able to deliver electricity. Significantly, electricity imports in BiH has increased by nearly 57 percent, or 27 million, while at the same time, exports of energy fell by a whopping 68 percent or even 150 million.
The president of the Federal regulatory agency for electricity (FERC) ?ulizara Hadžimustafi? said in an interview with Anatolia Agency (AA) to the left of drought effects on the production of electricity and EPBIH
“EPHZHB is complete based on hydro energy and electricity imports. It was in this period, then, for seven months produced about 63 percent of the electricity in hydroelectric plants. Means that the lack of electricity had to get on the market. This will automatically affect the business and EPs. On the other hand, EP BiH has hydro and thermal power, but because of the drought produced more heat than hydropower. But EPBIH not cover the lack of electricity production in thermal power blocks, “said Hadžimustafi?.
He adds that FERC monitors daily what is happening in the power system of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, he claims that no electric power, for now, has not submitted a request to increase electricity prices.
“Probably before the new year will bring a conclusion what to do. ‘Cause, this business EPHZHB, which is relying on imports will cause a loss or increase in electricity prices. Addition, EPBIH spent more coal than planned, which also affects the electricity generating costs. although for six months EPBIH operations positively. We will make a decision on the base year for both EPs. They prepare for this situation, “says Hadžimustafi?.
Analyst BiH Foreign Trade Chamber Igor Raven hard for AA to a lack of electricity in Bosnia may soon be even higher.
“Specifically in EPHZHB has only hydropower. There is a serious danger that, instead of having to replace the electricity from other domestic
Electricity, electricity imported into Bosnia and at much higher prices. Because the crisis will affect the whole region, which could be reflected in electricity prices for end users, “said Raven.
Furthermore, he confirmed that there is a danger that BiH simply left without sufficient amounts of electricity, so that approaches or reductions that it supplies at much higher prices on the foreign market.
“There is such a danger, because for years in Bosnia creates a false image that we have limitless potential in the current. We really have potential, but larger 20 years
We raised a new energy system that means an increase in production. Dependence of natural phenomena like we’re in the stone age. We need to build capacities in BiH that does not depend on time, and to be less sensitive to the hydrological situation. Unfortunately, we’re bringing it to the fact that yesterday’s excess electricity, which we sold, exceeding the limit of profitability in today’s and tomorrow may lack in, “said Raven.
Hilmo Šehovi?, an energy expert with the Faculty of Electrical Engineering in Sarajevo says that “critical hydrology in Bosnia.” Warns that during the reconstruction of block 6 of 215 megawatts in the “TPP Tuzla”, which will further affect the production of electricity.
“It is certain that it will be the lack of power that will be required to compensate for the import. Especially in EPHZHB. Electricity prices will rise. Similar situation in the RS. Entire BiH will not suffer in such a disorganized power system,” warns Šehovi?.
Likewise, Serbia hydropower produced 20 percent less electricity than planned. From “Power Industry of Serbia” (EPS) have announced that they will have to compensate for the import. Specifically, the EPS from the Serbian government seeks approval imports 360 million kilowatt hours of electricity in September and October this year.
In Montenegro, the annual electricity normally nedostaje30 percent, due to lower water inflow at HE “Perucica” and HPP “Beers” has significantly decreased and the production of electricity.
Experts from Serbia warning that the Balkans were already faced with a lack of electricity, and that the entire Balkans poor hydrological situation has led to a shortage of electricity production.
In Croatian production at hydroelectric plants, too, for 26 percent less than in normal hydrologic years. From the Croatian Electricity Company (HEP) have already announced that this year because of drought and low water levels in rivers to import 1.5 tera power than is the case in years with normal hydrological situation.
Analysts point to the fact that the Albanian CEZ confirmed that nearly quadrupled imports of electricity and to 350 gigawatt-hours per month with 100 imported in July. For this they were forced to keep the power system in the country from complete collapse. Macedonia is also the past few years, faced with a lack of electricity and for the import of electricity annually spends about $ 50 million.
Power consumption in European countries has risen to 15 percent. It is believed that one of the problems is that it is a closed nuclear power plant in Germany. High demand for electricity in Europe offset the exports from Slovenia, Hungary, and the body of the Bulgarian nuclear power plant.
In most countries of the Western Balkans announced the rise. In Serbia, the prices will be the same at least until October. In Montenegro, this is a major issue for months, and in recent days and Croatia (HEP) is seeking permission from the Croatian government for price hike of 22 percent.
Chain reaction, possible layoffs
Raven analyst suggests that due to poor hydrology and bad policies in the electricity trade could be increased costs of electricity generation, as well as the outflow of money abroad on the basis of the trade deficit.
“It could cause far-reaching losses of companies affected by the price of electricity, and then it continues on reducing production and firing workers. So drop all the indicators and a lower standard of living. Due to current can get a chain reaction,” the Raven.